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Overall, the results indicate that both the productive capacity of an economy and the distribution of income matter for financial stability.Financial crises are born out of prolonged credit booms and depressed productivity.The disagreement is not caused by classification error but rather arises because self-reported durations reflect individuals’ in short-term jobs either temporarily suspending their search or continuing search while working.Recent employment breaks negative duration dependence in unemployment exits and the unemployed who report long durations after recent employment have similar job finding rates as those who report short durations.Sustained periods when the real interest rate remains below the central bank's estimate of r-star can induce the agent to place a substantially higher weight on the deflation equilibrium, causing it to occasionally become self-fulfilling. In model simulations, raising the central bank's inflation target to 4% from 2% can reduce, but not eliminate, the endogenous switches to the deflation equilibrium. All of these developments may have contributed to an unusual buildup of financial instability.I solve for the time series of stochastic shocks and endogenous forecast rule weights that allow the model to exactly replicate the observed time paths of the U. This paper explores the contribution of each of these three developments in explaining financial crises using long-run historical data for 17 advanced economies.We find that the best predictor of future employment for the non-employed is their duration since last employment.

In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation.

Interest rate rules with a positive weight on debt-to-GDP cause indeterminacy.

Compared to inflation targeting, debt-to-GDP stabilization calls for a more expansionary policy when debt-to-GDP is high, so as to deflate the debt burden through inflation and output growth.

To illustrate the feasibility and desirability of the onestep approach, we compare arbitrage-free dynamic term structure models estimated using both approaches.

We also provide a simulation study showing that a one-step approach can extract the information in large panels of bond prices and avoid any arbitrary noise introduced from a first-stage interpolation of yields.




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